Inspirational Thought: Pascal’s Wager & Sharing the Gospel by Sharing You

October 27, 2024

Inspirational Thought: Pascal’s Wager & Sharing the Gospel by Sharing You

Dear Elder Yu,

I would like to share something different with you this week, which was supposedly shared with you last week. Unfortunately, I caught up with homework and sleep issues.

Last week we studied probability. While my instructor has tried to provide inspirational thoughts in the class, he admitted that the fact that study of Statistics is not a topic that lends itself well to Spirituality.

First of all, Probability is simply how likely something is to happen. Whenever we are unsure about the outcome of an event, we can talk about the probabilities of certain outcomes—how likely they are. Another term for this is the Expected value.

An expected value may look like this.  Imagine a simple gambling game:

You pay in $1.00. There is a 1/10 chance of winning, and the winner gets $5.00.  So this implies a 9/10 chance of losing the game.

The expected value is:

(Probability of winning) * (cost of winning) + (Probability of losing) * (cost of losing)

The cost of winning is +$4.00 (you have already paid in 1 at the start). The cost of losing is -$1.00.

Expected value is:

0.1*4 + 0.9*(-1) = 0.4 – 0.9 = -0.50

So this means that on average every time you play this game, on the average you are losing 50 cents.

An additional ecclesiastical insight here:  Church leaders will discourage gambling for Spiritual reasons.  A Statistician will also discourage gambling because in all cases, you WILL be losing over time.  They build huge casinos for a reason.  Every time somebody plays, on average, they are giving away money.

He shared with us some religious insight. When people discuss the existence of God, what they are really talking about is the probability of the existence of God, as no philosopher or scientist has ever completely proved the existence or non-existence of God yet.  I would imagine that being a BYU-I Student, we all have placed the probability of God as being very high (as have I) if not at (P=1).  But of course, others are less certain.

Pascal’s Wager was devised by a French philosopher and mathematician to logically look at how to rationally negotiate this probability. According to Pascal, a reasonable individual ought to actively seek to believe in God and live in a way that is consistent with his presence. This position is justified by the possible consequences:

If God does not exist, the person merely suffers limited losses and may have to give up some comforts and luxuries. Then either way there is nothing after life, and it may not matter how you live.  Of course, this is doctrinally simplified, but you get the point.

But if God is real, and you live a good life of devotion to Him, the reward of this ‘wager’ is eternal life in Heaven. They stand to benefit incalculably—for instance, an eternity in Heaven in Abrahamic tradition—while the ‘cost’ of that decision is avoiding the limitless losses that come with an eternity in Hell.

The point is, even if you determine the probability of the existence of God to be extremely low, the logical thing to do would be to live a life of devotion anyhow, as this is the rational ‘wager’.  The payoff for devotion is so high and the loss for non-devotion is so bad. 

This intrigued me and reminded me about the “Basher” and “Atheist” you always talked about during our video calls. “The Savior has shown the way. He has set the perfect example, and He commands us to become as He is ( 3 Nephi 27:27).” You can show them the Savior’s love as how He ministered to the one during His ministry on earth. Being humble, kind, polite, and gentle, but be brave and firm on what you believe all at the same time.

There are some I read that might be helpful to you, or you might already know about when the response to people who do not believe as we do:

• Don’t assume that people will be offended if you share your beliefs.
• Don’t be apologetic.
• Try to find common ground.
• Stay positive, and make positive statements rather than negative defenses (which come across like you’re saying “Am not!” all the time).
• Recognize that some terminology and concepts may be new for some people (like premortal life or apostasy).
• Remember, it’s not a debate—you don’t have to change the other person’s view, and the Lord’s cause isn’t going to win because you scored more points.
• Don’t have the same conversation with the same person over and over again if it just leads to an argument every time.
• If something comes up that you don’t know anything about, you can say that you want to study and think it through so you can talk about it later.
• Sometimes you may need to just bear your testimony and leave.
• Have an exit strategy—not only how to get out of a conversation but how to pick up your spirits after you leave a really hard conversation.

I think the best way to share the gospel is to live it. Living testimonies. That is how your Daddy and Mommy learned about the Church 10 years ago because we saw Brother Felix and sister Joyce's family. The happiness they brought with them and the way I felt around them was undeniable. They did not preach about God. It was simply in their very being: their lifestyle, their choices, their actions, and reactions. When both your Daddy and Mommy looked at them, we said to ourselves, “That is how we want our children to live. That is where I want to be in life.” So, we walked into the water of baptism and made the covenant with the Lord.

Sharing the gospel by sharing you. President Nelson taught years ago, that as we become more converted and increase the level of our faithful discipleship, the effect it has on our actions, speech, and even countenance will be difficult to ignore. “Your good works will be evident to others… The light of the Lord can beam from your eyes. With that radiance, you had better prepare for questions.”

Well, these are some of my thoughts. I hope I can write to you 1 more letter/email during the week. Love you as always!

Love,
Mommy